To Make The Volt Affordable, GM Needs Toyota

When it comes to cars we’ll be driving in the future, this much was clear at the 2008 Society of Automotive Engineers’ Hybrid Symposia in San Diego last week: The future is far from clear.

There were some pretty sharp papers being delivered by such stars as Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM and Chrysler at the event. But by far the most thought-provoking presentation was given by Dr. Menahem Anderman of Advanced Automotive Batteries. His paper, ‘PHEV – A Step Forward or a Detour?’ took a cold-eyed view of the debate over plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) based upon his interviews with over 40 companies, including all the major car manufacturers and battery makers.

Dr. Anderman’s analysis shows that, for one thing, when we talk about hybrids, we’re still effectively talking about one company – Toyota. With an 83% hybrid market share in 2007, Toyota is the 900-pound gorilla in the business of mass manufacturing and selling nickel-metal hydride batteries for automobiles. Moreover, the transition to lithium-ion batteries (as needed by GM for the Volt) will be based less on particular chemistries and technical details than their suitability for being mass manufactured in a reliable, economic fashion.